It is the pivot strategy that matters to the US
Pessimism about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the ensuing effect on stability in that country in particular and the region in general, does not stay limited to only the political commentators, international organizations, governments and the Afghan people, but has deeply concerned the think thanks and scholars across the world. In a program on “US Strategy towards South Asia: Post Afghan Withdrawal” organized by the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) in New Delhi, Professor Stephen Cohen (Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, US) unfolded many untold stories. While he confesses that the drawback is going to leave Afghanistan at a turmoil, chaos, instability, and possible return to the horror of Post-Soviet withdrawal, strongly states that “Americans are tired of war in this part of the world and their politicians are now determined to pullout.” He further added: Americans are not going to leave Afghanistan because they have accomplished their mission, but they are leaving because there is no more US interest in this part of the world; instead they would rather shift to what he called “Pivot Strategy” and engage with the Pacific to contain China in response to its allies’ call in that region. Americans are in pursuit of their interests and have never followed a consistent policy; they did the same with Vietnam and the same can be expected for Afghanistan; and that the US is not answerable to what has happened to Afghanistan, the professor added.
Furthermore, according to me what has not been told yet, is the fact that he pointed that the problem in Afghanistan is a regional problem, opposite to what it was previously called global war on terrorism. Pak-India relations and their conflict plays the major role in the escalation of violence in the region, therefore these two countries can be the solution and India should take the lead as the most powerful country in South Asia. The strategic unity of the subcontinent is a necessary condition for the stability in the region and bringing the two countries to common terms is more important than the issue in Afghanistan. Afghanistan, according to him, is not a country or a nation, rather it is a collection of tribes and fall prey to any regional or international proxy support.
More interestingly, he regrets for US having not punished Pakistan for acquiring nuclear bomb and China for providing them with the technology. “Truth is a rare commodity in Pakistan and that is how they hang together”, he added. There is a strong possibility of a secret group behind the scene influencing the whole policies and there is less scope for the official bureaucracy to make the important decisions. Unless Pakistan is normalized there would be no peace existing in the region and the Muslim world; Pakistan will be normal when it demonstrates control over its nuclear bombs and the country is run on the basis if democratic principles. US miscalculated Pakistan earlier and now their cause has no leverage among the US policy makers.
The inference one can develop from the comments of this kind is that US is calculating its existence or non-existence anywhere in the world on the basis of its sheer strategic interest, even if it takes them to call upon India to rise as regional power and take the leadership in South Asia. US efforts to ally with India to the extent that they are ready to accept India’s military involvement in Afghanistan, as the professor calls “India’s Active Diplomacy should lead the region”, while they know of the consequences it will create for the entire region, is in line with their “Pivot Strategy” to contain China. US play its games backed by the motive of maintaining its supremacy in the global power game, so it is the pivot strategy that matters not Afghanistan or whatsoever. The Afghan officials in particular the President must understand the scenario and play his card to the wisest possible way for the overall benefit of the country. One such instrument is the urgent signing of the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA). US authorities are looking for a way out to get rid of what they call “Afghanistan mess”, while justifying to US citizens that they have accomplished their mission by bringing Osama to his knees.
India on the other hand, should not be optimist on its alliance with US and should understand the fact that any engagement beyond what maintains the status quo will have bloody consequences both at home and the region. Radicalism and extremism will be further exacerbated and will put the whole region on fire, while the US will attain the objective of containing not only China but India itself as well. The insurgency in Bangladesh will break into Indian borders, Pakistan will directly engage in combating India and the radical movement will infiltrate India. So it is the regional game that should be played out, and that game can be played only through regional cooperation. Americans have rightly sorted out that the problem needs to be solved within the region. Pak-India relation is the prototype of Arab-Israel relation and the disease will produce virus that may contaminate the entire world in general the South Asia in particular. The only solution, to prevent the escalation of violence is the call for India to adhere to her non-violent principles promoted by the very Indian spirit of its founding father.
The overall solution in the long run exists elsewhere, and that is reconsidering the ideology spread from Saudi Arabia and executed by Pakistan. The entire idea of hatred needs to be addressed by imparting civic education. Pakistan religious schools some of which are the recruitment centers for the extremists need to be kept in strict check. Unless the very ideological source of violence which produces extremism is not addressed, no peace is feasible at any part of the world.
Note: Stephen P. Cohen is a senior fellow with the India Project in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, following a career as a professor of political science and history at the University of Illinois. He conducts research on South Asian political and security issues and is the author of Shooting for a Century: The India-Pakistan Conundrum.