At the moment, Afghanistan passes through numerous problems; uncertain political circumstances and unstable security condition stand to be the most immediate problems, pleading prior attention. Putting cognitive abilities into practice the public officials can reduce the size of problems if can’t eradicate them. The politicians representing their electoral constitution not necessarily should come up to the expectation of their Electoral College but must come true to the voice of truthfulness and sanity. The intensity of suspicion over irreversibility of ongoing situation entailing diverse security, political and economic troubles multiplied with every advancing day, erodes the confidence of both foreigners and locals equally to the minimal degree; consequently huge off-putting impact is inflicted on socio-economic uplift of the country.
The degree of uncertainty, concerning the future of Afghanistan, subsequent to suspension of the fate of BSA has widened, which melts the reliance of ordinary masses including business persons, investors, non-public organizations, educationalists, industrialists and people from different walks of life, on the government. The delayed if not denied fate of BSA, is one of the underlying reasons behind the sustenance of status quo, which may not practically serve the interest of Afghanistan.
The President has not taken seriously to the call of US, requesting the signature of BSA so that the plans of, what to do, are laid down. Recently, the White House warned that the suspension or denial of BSA will negatively affect the confidence of international community. The most evident drawback the non-endorsement of BSA earns for Afghanistan will be the economic downfall, prompted. If President Karzai finds, the ratification of BSA will not win socio-economic and political progress for Afghans, he is worth doing the delay tactic. If the incumbent government is confident enough tackling all socio-economical and political problems of the country, on its own without seeking help from international community –then its stance renders justifiable. Else, it is unwise and ridiculous pushing the country on the avenues of uncertainty and instability.
The longer, Afghanistan-Washington security deal takes to get finalized, the deeper harms Afghanistan earns. The corruption plagued government has earned infamy and notoriety –not trusted to be relied. There can be two options left to business community. Pursuing the “wait and see” stratagem commands sufficient time –hence renders unaffordable. Withdrawing the investments from Afghanistan certainly will be the other alternative left to their discretion. Fearing worsening political conditions, many investors have already either halted investment or planned to draw down their investment. Neither of the option matches the interests of war-torn Afghanistan. Even the international NGOs operating variant social programs are directly reliant on international troops, and renew their resolve to continue their mission conditioned to the presence of US troops post 2014.
The aforementioned gloomy tale of uncertain politico-economical situation effecting afghan economy is reflected from former report of Global Economic Prospects (GEP) of World Bank (WB). The report unearthed a good news for South Asia whose GDP growth is projected to improve to 5.7 percent in 2014, rising gradually to 6.7 percent in 2016, led mainly by recovering high income import demand and regional investment.
However, painting a grim picture of the Afghan economy, the World Bank (WB) estimated the country’s growth rate at 3.1 percent in the year 2013; which is a sharp drop from 14.4 percent in the previous year. The WB said the withdrawal of international forces would affect Afghanistan, as previously donor-financed expenditure would need to be financed from budget expenditure.
More or less similar concern is underscored by the former Washington Post report unearthed whilst warning the progress in Afghanistan over the past three years is likely to be seriously eroded by 2017 even if Western powers continue to support Kabul financially, citing an intelligence assessment. The report certainly intimates to different issues seizing Afghanistan. The report is compiled by new National Intelligence Estimate, which includes input from 16 US intelligence agencies. The report predicts the Taliban and other powerbrokers will increase their influence even if the United States leaves behind a few thousand troops and continues to fund authorities in Kabul. Even if the report is fuss yet the anti-democratic elements must not be considered null and void but potent enough to undertake severe attacks against Kabul governments and international allies as witnessed previously.
The impasse of security accord doesn’t serve the interest of Afghanistan and the US alike whilst President Karzai displays several reservations. President own a stance not to sign the agreement with Washington unless United States promises to end airstrikes and raids on civilian residents and kick-off brokering peace talks with the Taliban group in a bid to end the violence in the country.
Factually President Karzai’s later stance seems more realistic than former. The US strives to reserve the option of independent night raids against remnants of Al-Qaida to give them a hard blow. The Afghan led raids might not produce the expected result, keeping several incidents of insider attack in view that marks the presence of secret agents of insurgents penetrated in afghan armed forces. President Karzai reiterate US of brokering a deal between his government and Taliban to end violence seems absurd, given the Taliban shows unwillingness to partake talk with government who is found to be a puppet. Practically speaking any deal with Taliban can’t assure restoration of peace –provided Taliban will not practically abandon violence, instead they tend to use violence to subjugate the democratic setup and enforce their obsolete demands.
The report matches the ground realities of endless socio-political and economical problems Afghanistan has to face, despite the BSA upheld. Though it pledges economic riches being the precondition for the delivery of billions of dollars in Western aid, over the next years, yet the government has to take sincere measures to keep the democratic system functioning by incorporation of self-reliance and self-esteem.
The BSA allows US military trainers and counterterrorism forces to remain in Afghanistan after the last American combat troops leave the country by December this year. This will ensure both political stability and security, given the insurgents and non-democratic forces trying to destabilize the system, are kept at bay. Taliban dreaming, to oust Kabul government subsequent to withdrawal of US forces, turn futile whilst Afghan national army is well equipped and privileged with greater opportunity of continued training by international forces and endless financial support to Afghan downtrodden economy.