During past few weeks, two major things took place that seriously changed the political calculations. First of all, the elder brother of Mr. President Karzai, Mr. Qayom Karzai after long exhausting negotiation at the back stage withdrew from electoral campaign process in the favor of Zalmai Rasoul who is largely viewed enjoying the support of palace. Secondly, the sudden demise of first Vice President, Mr. Ahmad Qasim Fahim. The sudden death of first Vice President Mr. Ahmad QasimFahim sent shock down to spine of Afghan politics. As the most trusted figure of Ahmad Shah Masoud, he took the leadership of Northern Alliance, a strong anti-Taliban front which also was on the verge of collapse if the 9/11 had not taken place. Indeed, he was so lucky that soon after the assassination of Ahmad Shah Masoud by two Arab suicide bombers that introduced themselves as foreign journalists, the US-led military coalition intervened and pummeled Taliban and Al-Qaeda fronts tremendously across the country. As an undisputable successor of Ahmad Shah Masoud, he attracted huge portion of American support to anti-Taliban fronts. As Gary Scheron, the chief of the first CIA team deployed in the country provided him great support at very first meeting with him. Thereafter, US and its allies always counted on him and invited him and other figures that, to some extent, followed his orders to all key decision making conferences and sessions. 

Certainly, he was an insuring power wherever he tilted. When Mr. President Karzai chose the brother of Ahmad Zia Masoud the brother of Ahmad Shah Masoud as the first Vice President, he clearly felt ignored and vividly threatened Mr. President of systematic marginalizing of Jihadi leaders. So, Mr. President was not able to change his deputies based on the constitution of Afghanistan. But when he went to make him a candidate for the second time in presidential election, he chose Mr. Fahim as his first deputy which on one hand could potentially silent the supporters of Dr. Abdullah Abdullah who and his supporters claimed that Mr. President Karzai defeated him only by widespread and systematic electoral fraud.

Despite such claims that could seriously endanger the stability, the influence of Mr. Fahim beside Mr. President prevented a possible political mayhem. Meanwhile his cooperation with government did not mean that he gave up support of northern alliance. It was widely believed that this time he secretly stood behind Mr. Abdullah Abdullah and once openly told that he would support Mr. Abdullah in a cabinet meeting.

Similarly, Mr. Qayom Karzai who was one of the leading candidates in the upcoming Presidential election finally reached to conclusion to step away from running election. Perhaps various reasons mentioned but I think of the key thing which made him to pull off was the international opposition to his candidacy. International media and also foreign allies all viewed his succession as serious blow to democracy because it looked inheritance of the government. In another word, his victory would easily branded as change of government into family business of Karzai.

According to available information it was deemed that Mr. President was lobbying for Mr. Sayyaf, a Jihadi leader to represent his team in the next presidential election. Though he is a radical religious scholar but his staunch stance against Taliban regime earned him some popularity among civilians. According to book of Gary Scheron, the person who led the first CIA team in north, he was fighting against Taliban militants along with northern alliance. He is also a religious leader who enjoy influence among traditional layer of the society. But he had widespread within different communities. Ethnically he does not belong to any four major ethnic groups. However, he expected to gain his major support from Tajik and Pashtun ethnic groups. Because however ethnically he is not a Pashtun but widely viewed so because he grew up among them like Sayyeds who have lived among Hazara community and now known as Hazaras.

The western countries have not intention to take the risk and spark common people’s anger. Till now, the international community has formally stood aside and watch silently where camel of victory may finally lie down. But seemingly, they, particularly the United States have no problem with potential candidates who have greater chance to win the election. They understand they do not have the chance. Perhaps, the number of people who will candidate will be so high that money of them is not public figures too. Their first objective is that they will try to candidate themselves and after receiving enough from a potential candidate will leave the scene. The second are those who just nominate themselves merely to become popular and through that approach to pillar of political power.

Now, with death of Marshal Qasim Fahim and call off Mr. Qayom Karzai the result of Presidential election will enter in another circle. On one hand, some say that his death will spark nationwide sympathy for Dr. Abdullah Abdullah while others view that he will get weakened losing one of his potential supporter within the palace. What is important is this that a key player of politics just left the front which will affect either side.