I previously wrote in the same newspaper that post-election behavior of Presidential candidates to some extent is far more important than the election itself. The statement of Under-Secretary General of United Nations Herve Ladsous, during Nawroz festival celebrated in palace indicated the concern is shared worldwide. He said that presidential candidates should prepare themselves to accept the result of the election. He said electoral rigging should not become the pretext to reject the result of the election if it was confirmed by electoral legal bodies.

His statement reflected the United Nations is seriously worried about the behavior of Presidential candidates. There is tight competition among three Presidential candidates if other candidates avoid stepping down in the favor of one of them and make a larger coalition. Till now Zalmai Rasoul the ex-foreign minister and the candidate who appears to be the only favorite candidate of the palace has been very successful in convincing others to come under his umbrella. Qayom Karzai the elder brother of President Karzai who was also one of the leading runners of the election last month withdrew though community elders asked him to stand till the end instead of Zalmai Rasoul. Gul Agha Sherzai another influential figure also stepped down however in the favor of no one. But analysts believed that his decision was also affected by lobby of Zalmai Rasoul’s backers. He has influence among certain parts of Pashtun tribes and he even said in one his speeches that some Taliban leaders also announced their support from him. It is highly possible that his supporters would not go to vote for Dr. Abdullah Abdullah who is the only candidate from non-Pashtun community. Certainly, those vote banks will shift toward Pashtun candidates, and major part of them to Zalmai Rasoul and Ashraff Ghani. So, the theory that Mr. President was behind his decision does not look illogical. Last week, Nader Naim, however, not a much popular candidate called off from running the election in the favor of Zalmai Rasoul.

This shows that ex-foreign minister is doing great in persuading candidates and raising his chance in the upcoming election. Despite huge bargaining among other candidates neither Ashraff Ghani nor Dr. Abdullah Abdullah yet succeeded to convince at least one of the candidates to support them. revelation of backstage talks show that the remaining candidates do not have least willingness to align with Ashraf Ghani, Dr. Abdullah Abdulllah or Abdurrab Rasoul Sayyaf whose staunch stance against Taliban won him support among youngsters and his religious background keep as only choice for radical groups. But the possibility of attrition from eight remaining candidates in favor of Zalmai Rasoul is still so high. It is highly possible within just a week remaining to presidential election some other(s) also prefer to come under umbrella of Zalmai Rasoul.

Presently, Zalmai Rasould has strengthened his position. If he succeeds to align some candidates with himself, his chances to become the next president will rise tremendously. But till now both Dr. Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraff Ghani consider themselves as the next President and are extensively engaged in the provinces and districts for affecting the decision of people. Dr. Abdullah in one of his speeches to his supporters said that he had only two main rivals: fraud and fraud! He believes that he will gain votes of particular groups within other ethnic group. By choosing Mohammad Mohaqiq the highly influential leader of Hazara community, it is possible that visible number of Hazara voters vote for him because of Haji Mohaqiq.

On the other hand, despite serious problems at the leadership level of Tajik community, they largely will vote for him irrespective of candidates who have chosen their first deputy from the community. During 2009 Presidential election, he was a close rival of Mr. President Karzai and he back then claimed that he lost only because of widespread rigging. Since then, changes have taken place in his favor. In 2009, Hazara community had their own candidate, Ramazan Bashar Dost, the current MP in lower house of the parliament. After Mr. President Karzai and Dr. Abdullah, he won the largest junk of vote. But this time Hazara community has no candidate. Thus, keeping Mr. Haji Mohammad Mohaqiq is largely helpful in his success.

Thirdly, however numbers of people nominated themselves but Mr. Karzai was an unchallenging representative of Pashtun community. However, he may try his best to collect the votes of community around his favorite candidate, but the votes of the community might disperse among several candidates unless major changes occur within a remaining week such as coalition between Ashraff Ghani and Zalmai Rasoul.

Ashraff Ghani is another front runner who has appeared with very well-established and strong campaign team. Though he nominated himself in 2009, but the votes he gained was ignorable. But his concrete plan and well-introduction through media has changed him another leading competitor.

So, if all of them go with the same mentality, it is highly possible that each of them considers himself as the winner. The baseless brag may push some of them to stand against the result of the election which will be highly dangerous and worrisome as expressed by Herve Ladsous. If the candidates do not play fair, the possibility of controversy and even clash is not negative.